Not quite the “Big Game” like we had in picking California to cover against Stanford but big for Toledo (7-4, 6-1) nonetheless as they look to enhance their bowl eligibility against Ball State (6-5, 4-3). The two will meet at Scheumann Stadium with the home side Cardinals a big +14 dog with a posted total of 70.5 at BetDSI Sportsbook.
As the total indicates, this is expected to be a high-scoring game and features the Toledo offense that has been putting up big numbers and yardage all year. The Rockets average 42 points per game and close to 500 yards of offense as they still hold onto the slimmest hope of winning the MAC West Division.
While Ball State has a decent offense I just don’t like their chances of staying with the high flying Rockets. Over the past four weeks Toledo has put up 49, 60, 66 and 44 points (almost a 55 point average) on their way to winning 6 of their past 7 games. The problem is that Toledo is so explosive and balanced on offense they are incredibly difficult to slow down, yet alone stop. Their quarterbacks and running backs are all enjoying great seasons playing with a fantastic offensive line in front of them.
In a game where a ton of points should be scored I look for Toledo’s defense to be a little better than the Ball State squad and the Rockets to pound in the points with time-consuming drives as well as their ability to make big plays. While the Rockets defense may be getting better, the Cardinals were ripped for 710 (!) yards just last week by Northern Illinois, and that does not bode well here.
In the end Toledo just does everything a little better than Ball State and when talking about such an explosive offense I think the Rockets will be handle this number on Friday. Make it and wager, Toledo -14 over Ball State.