This weekend’s UFC ‘TUF season 17 Finale’ event that features a main event at bantamweight of Urijah Faber taking on Scott Jorgensen has several wide lines at the sportsbooks. Granted, the ladies match between Cat Zingano and Meisha Tate is a near pick ‘em, but Faber himself is at -450, TUF Finale favorite Uriah Hall is at -360, and there are a couple of wide lines throughout the card before it settles into the even fights of the undercard. The question is, are any of these wide underdogs worth gambling on?
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The weigh ins today will tell the bettors something about the Travis Browne-Gabriel Gonzaga match. Right now, Browne sits at -290 with the comeback on Gonzaga at +230.
Browne’s big career win is over Stefan Struve, and he has matches against opponents who are 9-13, 1-21, 0-0 and 0-1. Browne has big hands as he KO’d Abe Wagner and veteran Aaron Brink quickly while on the ‘B’ circuit as well as Struve in the UFC. He owns a win over footballer Michael Westbrook in another gimmicky match that doesn’t tell us much about Browne. Browne is coming off his first career loss, to Antonio Silva, and he had nothing for ‘Bigfoot’.
As for Gonzaga, it is light years since his KO of Mirko CroCop, and his career has been a rollercoaster since. He has been in and out of the UFC, and at times has looked out of shape and unmotivated. Gonzaga, however has quietly managed to string together three wins in a row, including two under the UFC flag.
If Gonzaga comes in good shape, and more importantly he looks motivated, he has a real good shot at winning this fight from the underdog spot. He has to avoid Browne’s big punch, but can do damage with his own strikes, and on the ground he should have the advantage. He is also facing a taller opponent, so unless Browne has done a lot of work, Gonzaga should be able to work from top position on the ground.
Besides Silva (again, his lone loss) and Struve (with his suspect chin), Gonzaga represents the best opposition for Browne in his career. Gonzaga has gone down to punches before, against the likes of Dos Santos, Couture and Werdum, but it is that experience against top class fighters that should carry the day for Gonzaga.