The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale, scheduled for Las Vegas on December 15th, has a new main event as ‘TUF’ season 10 veteran Matt Mitrione steps in for the injured Shane Carwin to face Roy Nelson. I wonder if Mitrione felt he had to take the match after UFC President Dana White bad mouthed him regarding his turning down the Strikeforce fight with Daniel Cormier that might have saved the November SF event? Carwin was favored 3 to 1 at most of the books over Nelson, but Nelson will be favored over Mitrione when the lines are produced. So let’s look at the fight….
Mitrione has been preparing for a December 29th fight against Phil De Fries, so he has been preparing and should be ready to go. Nelson however, is several notches above De Fries in level of competition.
Mitrione is a 34 year old former football player who has an overall record of 6-2 if you include his 1-1 record on the TUF reality show. This just isn’t enough experience to take on Nelson, who has been operating for the last five years at the highest levels of the sport.
Mitrione is a big puncher, but he is unlikely to win by KO against Nelson. and other than that, he does not appear to have the skill set to complete with Nelson.
Nelson on his feet is also a big puncher, so Mitrione will have to hit and not be hit. Nelson is the more skilled striker of the pair. Nelson is a solid wrstler and has a solid ground game, far outclassing what we have seen from Mitrione so far.
It will be intersting to see what Nelson weighs in at. There are times he has appeared better when he comes in heavy, so if he comes in around 255 or so, Mitrione has little chance in this one.