Another winner in the bank as our last pick was a nice dog winner with those pesky Pittsburgh Pirates blowing a lead and then going extra to beat the St. Louis Cardinals as a +135 dog. That takes our season-long running bankroll up to +$1675 with a 6-3 record since starting up this blog posting (for the sake of money management and measures we are using a $500 unit bet).
Saturday I am going back to the well with another home dog as the Milwaukee Brewers are at New York to take on the Mets at Citi Field in a 1:10 Pacific start time. BetDSI Sportsbook has opened the Brewers as -125 favorite on their overnight line. Remember that BetDSI reverts to a graduated-dime line starting 7:30 AM each day, so the price on the Mets may get better than the +105 we have to take right now.
Today’s pitchers aren’t figuring so much into this wager and I do have respect for how solid Brewers Randy Wolf has been, but the fact that he went 8 innings in each of his past two starts suggests he could be missing something today. Wolf is 4-6 away from home on the season. Chris Capuano goes for the Mets and he was solid in his lone start facing Milwaukee, winning after surrendering just 1 run in 6 innings of work.
Most of the energy behind this wager is how the Brewers struggle on the road with a 26-36 record as guests compared to 47-16 at home. To put this in perspective, none of the other five division leaders in baseball is below .500 on the road – only the Brewers, and they are 10 full games below with the Friday night game still pending.
I really like the Mets here and it seems they simply are not as bad a team as their record suggests. As an example, they have the second best batting average in the National League, 5 points higher than the Brewers. Since the All-Star break New York is hitting a robust .275 as a team, I simply feel they are a better team than the betting public gives them credit for.
An inflated price here on the traveling Brewers has me betting New York Mets +105 over the Milwaukee Brewers as an official wager at BetDSI Sportsbook.