MLB Saturday Free Pick – Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

Another winner in the bank as our last pick was a nice dog winner with those pesky Pittsburgh Pirates blowing a lead and then going extra to beat the St. Louis Cardinals as a +135 dog. That takes our season-long running bankroll up to +$1675 with a 6-3 record since starting up this blog posting (for the sake of money management and measures we are using a $500 unit bet).


Saturday I am going back to the well with another home dog as the Milwaukee Brewers are at New York to take on the Mets at Citi Field in a 1:10 Pacific start time. BetDSI Sportsbook has opened the Brewers as -125 favorite on their overnight line. Remember that BetDSI reverts to a graduated-dime line starting 7:30 AM each day, so the price on the Mets may get better than the +105 we have to take right now.

Best Baseball Bet Saturday New York Mets over Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets

Today’s pitchers aren’t figuring so much into this wager and I do have respect for how solid Brewers Randy Wolf has been, but the fact that he went 8 innings in each of his past two starts suggests he could be missing something today. Wolf is 4-6 away from home on the season. Chris Capuano goes for the Mets and he was solid in his lone start facing Milwaukee, winning after surrendering just 1 run in 6 innings of work.


Most of the energy behind this wager is how the Brewers struggle on the road with a 26-36 record as guests compared to 47-16 at home. To put this in perspective, none of the other five division leaders in baseball is below .500 on the road – only the Brewers, and they are 10 full games below with the Friday night game still pending.


I really like the Mets here and it seems they simply are not as bad a team as their record suggests. As an example, they have the second best batting average in the National League, 5 points higher than the Brewers. Since the All-Star break New York is hitting a robust .275 as a team, I simply feel they are a better team than the betting public gives them credit for.


An inflated price here on the traveling Brewers has me betting New York Mets +105 over the Milwaukee Brewers as an official wager at BetDSI Sportsbook.


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