I want to thank the guys at http://fightnomics.com for a recent piece that talked about the biggest upset at the sportsbooks in UFC history. The big upset has been one of the things missing from the current rut the UFC is in as far as their talent pool. The UFC has had a lot of huge odd differentials in resent main events (look up the odds for Stephan Bonnar and Anderson Silva, and Jon Jones versus Vitor Belfort) and the matches all seem to go to the favorite. Well the UFC has not had a lot of big upsets, but FIGHTNOMICS pinpointed the April 2007 Welterweight title fight between Matt Serra and Georges St Pierre.
Serra was a +850 or thereabouts at the sportsbooks, which means they had to pay out $850 dollars for every $100 dollars bet. There isn’t enough of this in the UFC.
Serra is a solid welterweight, and he had just won the reality show ‘The Ultimate Fighter’, but George St Pierre was a juggernaut of a champion. Serra really only had a puncher’s chance, and his punch was obviously big enough to flatten St Pierre and get the job done.
Ask yourself, can this happen again with the next St Pierre offering, against Carlos Condit? Condit is close to a 50 percent KO/TKO ratio, but is unlikely to take out St Pierre. Condit sits at approximately a +400 underdog for their upcoming November match.
Can Chael Sonnen take out Jon Jones next year when the two men meet for Jones’ Light Heavyweight tournament? Sonnen has a handful of KO/TKO stoppage wins, but they are generally from ground and pound and setting up a string of punches. Though he hits hard, Sonnen has not really shown the one punch type of KO power needed to pull off a Serra-like upset. Sonnen may be as big as a +1000 underdog when the lines come out officially for the fight.
Or what about Anderson Silva‘s next opponent? It is likely to be Michael Bisping for his next defense at 185 lbs, and there has been talk of a potential superfight with St Pierre. Neither man likely has the type of one punch power to hit Silva and take him out, Serra-style.
So what is more likely to happen is that we will continue to see the huge favorites win. Makes it hard to bet. When will we see the next Serra like upset at the UFC’s highest level? Not in 2012 nor the first half of 2013….