Prior to the regular season, if you had told someone that the New York Jets would have a better record than the Atlanta Falcons heading into their Week 5 Monday night contest, they would have told you to give your head a shake. However, that is the case as the 2-2 Jets travel to face the 1-3 Falcons, who might be in a must-win situation. The Falcons are a 10-point favorite on the NFL betting lines.
New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons
Monday, October 7th – 8:20 PM ET
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
NFL Odds: Falcons -10
Why The Jets Can Cover The Spread:
The Jets have been very solid defensively, ranking fifth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and eighth in passing yards, which takes some of the pressure off their offense. They did stumble a bit in a 38-13 loss at Tennessee in their last game, but you can’t put all that on the defense as the Jets committed four turnovers and that puts your defense at a disadvantage right away. Geno Smith committed all four of those turnovers and has been all over the place in his rookie season under center, to the point that many think the Jets should give Matt Simms a shot at the starting quarterback position. It doesn’t help that receiver Santonio Holmes will probably miss this game with a hamstring injury.
Why The Falcons Can Cover The Spread:
The Falcons can’t get down on themselves because they could be 3-1 or even 4-0 with a few breaks; all four of their games have been decided by seven points or less, and their losses have been on the road at New Orleans and Miami, along with a home loss to New England. These are good teams that the Falcons are losing to, but they have a very winnable stretch on the horizon. The offense can put up point, especially through the air where the Falcons rank fourth in passing yards, and their major issue on defense, passing defense, isn’t a strength of the Jets. The Falcons are historically good at home with Matt Ryan at the helm, and he has the weapons at his disposal. If the Falcons can find some semblance of a running game (getting Steven Jackson healthy would be a start), this could be a rout.
Atlanta has won both meetings with the Jets since 2005, a 27-14 victory at home back then, followed by a 10-7 win in New Jersey in 2009. The Falcons covered in both games, and when they have been favored by eight or more points as of late, they take care of business, covering the spread in their last five games, all at home at the Georgia Dome.
The Jets have maybe punched above their weight to start the season, while the Falcons have been a little unlucky and that could lead to a beatdown at the Dome. The New York defense has to keep the team in the game because they can’t score enough to keep up with Atlanta, and they’ll tire in the second half. Take the Falcons on the NFL spread.
Pick: Atlanta -10