A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.
Movin’ On Up
I was surprised to see the line on St. Louis Rams to move in favor of the Rams as they hosted Seattle last Sunday. Seattle has been running the ball well and always plays hard on defense, although more so at home. The fact that they are not as good when heading east may have had something to do with St. Louis closing a -3 -105 favorite at BetDSI Sportsbook. Seahawks won 24-7.
Another move was Minnesota surprisingly flipping from a small dog to a small favorite, closing Vikings -2, as they hosted Oakland. Minnesota losing RB Adrian Peterson obviously didn’t help but a team like the Vikings shouldn’t be favored over Oakland at this point. Oakland took it 27-21.
The three games with the highest wagering volume from the past Sunday (excluding Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games as they are always the most wagered) were:
San Diego at Chicago, Tennessee at Atlanta, and Tampa Bay at Green Bay
Not surprisingly the game with the lowest wagering volume was Jacksonville at Cleveland.
Quarterbacks continue to get beat up with Titans’ Matt Hasselbeck giving way to rookie Jake Locker Sunday at Atlanta. Locker only completed 9 of 19 but two went for touchdowns.
Bears QB Jay Cutler will be lost for a few weeks, likely, as Caleb Hanie steps into the starting role as he did last year.
Vince Young looked alright for Philadelphia in their win over NY Giants, he was rusty and a bit tentative but his numbers were good despite 3 picks.
With all his flaws, Rex Grossman should be the starting quarterback for Washington based on the fact he gives them the best chance to win. John Beck isn’t aggressive enough to win games.
QB Kyle Orton seems like he can help a handful of teams after being cut by Denver – Houston, Chicago, Kansas City and Indianapolis all seem like candidates and you never know what Mike Shanahan is thinking over in Washington.
Speaking of Shanahan, I hate how he has handled his running backs since Tim Hightower went down. Ryan Torain went nuts one week and then sat on the bench the next. Then rookie Roy Helu did the same thing and then he basically didn’t touch the ball the following week. So they brought in Tashard Choice who was cast off from Dallas, gave him a handful of touches, and then cut him. Shanahan may have spent so much time in that tanning booth that his decision-making is now being affected.
A Betting System
A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.
This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate. The Colts have qualified and lost twice. I don’t really like the Colts for this system simply because they have lost personnel which has put a huge strain on their defense being on the field too long and they have the look of a team that just doesn’t want to compete anymore. The case for the other 0-4 teams is different in my opinion, but the Colts, while technically qualifying, are not a team I will bet on unless it is a perfect spot.
Last week Minnesota failed to qualify as they closed as a favorite hosting Oakland.
Indianapolis technically is the lone qualifier this week at home to Carolina but I will not be including them as noted above.
Our “0-4 Dog System”:
ATS SEASON RECORD: 2-0 (excluding the 0-2 Colts)
Cincinnati lost two tough games to Pittsburgh and then Baltimore last week. They are now a -7 home favorite according to BetDSI Sportsbook at home to the Browns this weekend. Bengals have been so competitive despite key injuries it will be a test for them to maintain their focus hosting Cleveland.
Miami trashed the Buffalo Bills on Sunday and are riding a three-game win streak as they head to Dallas on Thursday. Cowboys are a -7 favorite with a posted Total of 44 points. It is not an easy game for Dallas.
Carolina is a rare road favorite, they are 0-4 away from home this season, but playing Indianapolis should come with an asterisk. Panthers run defense is terrible as we saw last week when Lions RB Kevin Smith, who wasn’t on any teams’ roster a few weeks ago, rolled over Carolina all day long.
Will Tennessee RB Chris Johnson ever start hitting the holes with authority again? If he doesn’t do it this season the Titans may just rip up that tidy new contract he signed. Tennessee hosts a Tampa Bay team that gives up a lot of yards rushing – CJ, you’re up.
Games of the Week
5:20 Pacific: San Francisco 49ers (38.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-3 -130) Thursday
1:15 Pacific: New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (No Line Yet)
Games I Won’t Be Watching
10:00 Pacific: Carolina Panthers (-3 -115) at Indianapolis Colts (45)
10:00 Pacific: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (43) at Tennessee Titans (-3 -130)