NFL Week Five Betting Recap

A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.

 

Those Seattle Seahawks – Someone Knew

The interesting “hot” side right around kickoff last Sunday was the Seattle Seahawks who dropped from a 10 point dog at the New York Giants to getting only 9 (or 9.5) by kickoff at BetDSI Sportsbook. While a 1-point move may not seem like much, the fact the number got pushed off of a relevant number like 10, where it held strong all week, was a bit surprising. Seattle carried over its momentum from the week before when they out-scored the Atlanta Falcons 21-6 in the second half and proceeded to shock the Giants, but not bettors, with a 36-25 victory. Against the Falcons the week before the Atlanta line moved against Seattle from -4 up to -6 at game time even with the Seahawks playing at home, and bettors who hammered the line up on Atlanta were burned. This week they flip-flopped and bet on the Seahawks and were well rewarded with an outright win. Seattle has a solid run defense, solid home field edge, and their offense has kicked into gear with WR Sidney Rice in the line-up – Hawks are off this week.

 

Looking Back           

It seems like people are going to bet on the Philadelphia Eagles no matter what. A 1-3 team went on the road to a rude 3-1 host on Sunday and bettors continued to throw their money down on the road favorite. We all know how that ended as the Buffalo Bills led 21-7 at halftime and held on to beat the Eagles 31-24. Eagles closed as a -3 -115 favorite but bettors did take some back by winning the Over wagers.

 

I expected much more from the Tennessee Titans with their balanced offense combined with a solid defense as they went to meet a beat-up Pittsburgh Steelers team. Steelers closed -3 -30 and QB Ben Roethlisberger rallied the troops to a 38-17 drubbing of the Titans. Something about a wounded bear being the most dangerous bear – I won’t make that mistake again.

 

The San Francisco 49ers are a good football team, they look a lot like the team everyone was expecting last season but never saw. Niners crushed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48-3 to move to 4-1.

 

Cam Newton did his thing once more in keeping the Carolina Panthers dangerously close to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Carolina led by 4 with less than a minute to go in the game.

 

QB Tim Tebow finally takes over a 1-4 team in Denver and really has nowhere to go but up. Tim Tebow = Cam Newton Light.

 

Yes, It's Tebow Time Again

Did I mention that the Detroit Lions are 5-0, too bad they are in the same division as the Green Bay Packers, the only other undefeated team in the NFL.

 

A Betting System

A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.

 

This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that are 0-4 out of the gate. Miami and St. Louis had their bye this past week, and both Minnesota (win) and Indianapolis (loss) were favored at home this past week.

 

This coming week Miami, Indianapolis, Minnesota and St. Louis will be all be dogs but all four teams are on the road.

 

Looking Ahead

In case anyone is counting, my NFL and College football blog plays have gone 9-2-1 the past few weeks after going 3-1 this past weekend (2-1 NFL and 1-0 in NCAA Football).

 

Bettors have been hitting the Philadelphia Eagles games Over regardless of the location, total, or opponent. This week the high-flying but 1-4 Eagles head to Washington with the Eagles favored -1.5 and a Total of 47. Yes, the Redskins are 3-1 on the season, at home, and coming off a bye – yet are in the role of underdog to a 1-4 team. Just sayin’ . . .

 

Oakland Raiders never gave up, hanging tough at Houston and then getting a big win as the Texans came close late. It was a big win fresh off the news that legendary Raiders owner Al Davis passed, moved Oakland to 3-2, and now they have a winnable game at home to Cleveland on Sunday. At 4-2 the Raiders will be in early playoff contention.

 

Games of the Week

10:00 Pacific: Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Washington Redskins (47)

10:00 Pacific: San Francisco 49ers (46) at Detroit Lions (-4)

 

Games I Won’t Be Watching

10:00 Pacific: St. Louis Rams (48) at Green Bay Packers (15)

10:00 Pacific: Indianapolis Colt (40.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

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