NFL Week Fourteen Betting Recap

A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.

 

Chchchchanges

Head Coaches are dropping like its hot! Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins both lost on Sunday, on Monday both head coaches lost their jobs.

 

My opinion obviously doesn’t count for much as far as coaching security is concerned but both sides had suffered their share of injuries and the coaches had each team back to playing competitively for many weeks now. But in the world of “what have you done for me lately”, the “lately” was Sunday, and what they did, was lose.

 

RB Jamal Charles Went Down In a Heap of KC Injuries

With Kansas City losing their quarterback (Cassel), top running back (Charles), young tight end (Moeaki) and arguably their best defensive player (Berry) and still putting together a 5-8 record . . . why does Norv Turner still have a head coaching job with the talented 6-7 San Diego Chargers?

 

San Diego sits 3rd of 4 teams in the AFC West and if they either miss the playoffs or get bounced early in the post season, Turner has to go. While Todd Haley’s act may have worn thin with the Chiefs, Turner’s losing should find him job hunting as well.

 

In Miami it seems to be a simple case of the owners and management thinking the reason for their 4-9 record is the coach, not the player talent.

 

Houston Texans are in the playoffs for the first time.

 

Denver Broncos win from behind . . . again.

 

One thing touching on Tim Tebow and his religious beliefs, they did a good job at the halftime of Sunday night’s Giants-Cowboys game of highlighting the fact that Tebow does not believe his teams win or lose based on the depth of their beliefs, nor is a game decided by the team who has the most “believers”. It was said (paraphrasing) that the Big Guy likely has better things to do than meddle in the outcome of sporting events.

 

At the end of boxing matches, etc. you often see/hear fighters offering their praise to the good Lord, or whomever, after a victory. Too many people extract from this that the fighter thinks God had a hand in the outcome, or that he won because he is a ‘better person’ than his opponent . . . this is a misconception.

 

If I had asked you “what game would have the lowest wagering volume of the week?” I think many would have thrown a guess down on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars. You would have been right, and it wasn’t even close. The winless Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore where the line was Ravens -16 was a distant second.

 

The most wagered games in terms of both wager count and dollar volume were New England Patriots at Washington Redskins and San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals – we exclude the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night marquee games as they are always the most wagered on.

 

Looking Back           

Dallas Cowboys welcomed back the New York Giants to division and playoff contention by botching another field goal at the end of their game Sunday night. QB Eli Manning looked very good in a must-win game for the Giants as they beat Dallas.

 

Behind QB TJ Yates the Houston Texans notched a last minute win at Cincinnati to lock up their first playoff berth. I haven’t seen much of Yates but reports are he is a talented guy who makes wise decisions and maintains his composure under pressure.

 

Carolina Panthers took a 23-7 lead to the break as they hosted Atlanta in search of their third straight victory. It was one of those game that the improving Panthers needed to win and should have, but didn’t. We’ll call it growing pains.

 

After losing outright as a -3.5 favorite at Arizona on Sunday, the San Francisco Forty-Niners are now 1-2 in their past 3 and host the Pittsburgh Steelers next week on Monday Night. They will have a chance to build some momentum by ending the season on the road at Seattle and St. Louis, but beating the Steelers would be most beneficial.

 

A Betting System

A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.

 

This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate. The Colts have qualified and lost three times. As previously stated, I don’t really like the Colts for this system simply because they have lost personnel which have put a huge strain on their defense being on the field too long and they have the look of a team that just doesn’t want to compete anymore. The case for the other 0-4 teams is different in my opinion, but the Colts, while technically qualifying, are not a team I will bet on unless it is a perfect spot.

 

No teams qualified this past week as they were either on the road or favored at home. Minnesota is a +7 dog at home to New Orleans on Sunday while the Rams are catching +6.5 hosting Cincinnati this week. Indianapolis has been taken out of the equation from the start.

 

Our “0-4 Dog System”:

ATS SEASON RECORD:  2-0 (excluding the 0-3 Colts)

 

Seattle Seahawk Seagals

Looking Ahead

 

The Green Bay Packers continue to cruise along without breaking much of a sweat. Their offense is as fine-tuned as they come and their defense continues to make big plays – including scoring touchdowns. The loss of WR Greg Jennings will hurt for sure and the Pack still hopes he makes it back for the playoffs.

 

Another prime-time game on Thursday for the 4-9 Jacksonville Jaguars – this week they go to Atlanta with the Falcons favored by 11 points.

 

Tampa Bay has been getting run over by everyone and Saturday night should be no different as Dallas (-7) visits the Bucs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals are 1-4 over their past 5 games and close the season at home to Baltimore on January 1st. The Bengals were looking like a wild card team earlier this season, not so much of late.

 

Seattle Seahawks sure play tough for Head Coach Pete Carroll. It has been well documented that Seattle plays best on the West Coast but we’ll see how they do heading East on Sunday. Chicago is a -3.5 favorite at BetDSI Sportsbook as they welcome Seattle on Sunday.

 

Games of the Week

1:15 Pacific: NY Jets (44) at Philadelphia Eagles (-3 +105)

5:35 Pacific: Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (No Line Yet) Monday

 

Games I Won’t Be Watching

10:00 Pacific: Tennessee Titans (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts (41)

1:15 Pacific: Cleveland Browns (37.5) at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

 

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