A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.
They Keep Fallin’
Every week some team that is rolling along and/or everyone expects to win falls flat on their face. Two weeks ago it was New Orleans dropping a game to the winless St. Louis Rams, this past week it was the Kansas City Chiefs as ‘only’ a 5.5 favorite at home to Miami losing outright to the 0-7 Dolphins. The Chiefs of course had won 4 straight while Miami was winless – both of those trends are done.
This is what I wrote in this spot last week:
“Tricky spot this week for the rolling Kansas City Chiefs as they come off the Monday Night win against rival San Diego and the 28-0 victory at the week before. Now they are a 4.5 point favorite as they host Miami and their 0-7 record. This game screams flat spot but we’ll see if HC Haley has the team focused.”
Yes the Denver Broncos won a big game under the guidance of QB Tim Tebow, but he still didn’t look that good. He threw 2 TD passes but he also had guys wide open and right down the middle on those. While he moved the ball well with his legs, that, more than anything, helped the rest of the offense flow as RB Willis McGahee exploded in the win at Oakland.
I wrote this last week here as well:
“Tim Tebow and his Denver Broncos are a +8 dawg at Oakland this week as the Raiders come off their bye week. New QB Carson Palmer should have much of the playbook under wraps now but 8 seem like a lot of points. Oakland is susceptible to the run and we may see a lot of Tebow on Sunday as he puts a rough week behind him.”
I also talked about the New York Jets going into Buffalo and beating the Bills and of the possibility that the NY Giants could take New England. Well, both of those things happened, and now the Jets, just a few weeks removed from the emergency room at 2-3, are off life support and now in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East at 5-3. Funny how the Jets went from ‘bad’ to a -1.5 favorite at home to mighty New England on Sunday night.
Here is another nugget I dropped last week:
“Aren’t 8.5 points too many for the NY Giants to be getting at New England this week as both come in at 5-2?”
Oohh those Cincinnati Bengals, what are they doing there at the top of the AFC North division? The 6-2 Bengals are tied atop the division with the Baltimore Ravens, just ahead of Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has won 5 in a row versus teams that have a combined record of 13-28 . . . that goes a long way to explaining things but good on the Bengals for winning winnable games.
A Betting System
A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.
This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate. The Colts will qualify this week catching +3 +100 at home to Jacksonville Jaguars. Miami is a home favorite while the Rams and Vikings are road dogs this week.
Our “0-4 Dog System” also had the Colts qualifying this past week but they fell to Atlanta and could not get the cover at home.
ATS SEASON RECORD: 2-1
A ton of great games ahead this week.
Having touched on the division leading Cincinnati Bengals it is worth noting that their next two games are against the division big boys: Pittsburgh then at Baltimore. This week the Steelers are a -3 -120 favorite at Cincinnati, the Total at BetDSI is currently 41.5.
Sticking with the Bengals, they have 2 games each against Pittsburgh and Baltimore ahead – I think that if they win one of those games they have a realistic playoff shot. The reason is they have games hosting Cleveland, at St. Louis and home to Arizona on the horizon too. Assuming they keep it going and beat those teams they would sit with 9 wins, just one victory over either Pittsburgh or Baltimore would take them to 10 and likely in the playoffs.
Oakland at San Diego -7 on Thursday is a tough game. The Chargers couldn’t overcome 3 Philip Rivers’ interceptions, 2 of which were run back for touchdowns in the first quarter, and fell to Green Bay 38-45 last week for their third straight defeat. Chargers have won 4 of 5 against division rivals but San Diego never makes anything easy. Raiders QB Carson Palmer looked better last week but Oakland has still lost the two games that Palmer has been onboard for.
New Orleans at Atlanta is a ‘Pick’ this week and the number seems about right. Saints are 6-3 while the home Falcons are 5-3 and on a three game winning streak. Atlanta has won 4 of 5 but those wins came against Seattle, Carolina, Detroit and Indianapolis with a loss to Green Bay in there. The win at the Lions was big but the 3 other wins are not notable. This will be a good gauge of both teams Sunday.
Buffalo Bills (48) at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) is a good game on paper and sounds like a good one to watch. But to bet it? Not me thanks, I cannot figure Dallas out at all.
Trying to predict the next favorite to fall – could it be the Baltimore Ravens this week? Baltimore is a -6.5 favorite at Seattle where the Seahawks play much tougher than on the road. Ravens are fresh off the big win at Pittsburgh on Sunday night and the lowly Seattle game is sandwiched between the Steelers and division leading Cincinnati next week.
Games of the Week
10:00 Pacific: New Orleans Saints (50) at Atlanta Falcons (PK)
5:30 Pacific: New England Patriots (47) at New York Jets (-1.5)
Games I Won’t Be Watching
10:00 Pacific: Jacksonville Jaguars (-3 -120) at Indianapolis Colts (38)
10:00 Pacific: St. Louis Rams (37) at Cleveland Browns (-3 +100)