NFL Week Seven Betting Recap

A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.

 

“What if ?” Peyton Manning . . .

Wondering out loud where the Indianapolis Colts would sit right now if QB Peyton Manning was healthy and starting from Day One. Without Manning they are 0-7 after being destroyed by New Orleans Saints last Sunday night, but even with Manning, the defense is terrible, and he doesn’t play both sides of the ball. I appreciate the fact that the defense may have less pressure on it with Manning around, have better field position, and be on the field less due to longer, sustained drives by the star QB – but despite the best efforts of stud DE Dwight Freeney, this defense is bad. Through seven games they have allowed 225 points against for a 32 point average against. Opponents are averaging 275.5 passing yards for an 8.5 yard average per pass attempt, and 2 TDs per game.

 

Looking Back           

Funny how things go with Denver Broncos QB Tim Tebow, he was bad for much of the game on Sunday at Miami and then in the blink of an eye the Broncos were kicking the winning field goal in overtime. I think it is time that Denver just let Tebow be who he is, run an offense that suits him, as opposed to asking him to fit into their mold. At least that way you will find out what the asset you have can do, and value him accordingly. A running back who catches the ball well and receivers who can adapt their routes as opposed to running perfect routes will help take advantage of the skill set Tebow has. We’ll see how Denver handles him from here forward.

 

The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-2 Heading to Seattle

The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-2 and on a three-game winning streak, how did that happen? Pittsburgh Steelers lead the AFC North division with a 5-2 record, having played one game more that the Bengals and Ravens. While Cincy heads to Seattle this week as a -3 +105 favorite according to BetDSI Sportsbook, the Steelers are a +3 -125 dog hosting New England. If both favorites win outright Cincinnati would be 5-2 along with Baltimore (currently 4-2 and favored by 13 hosting Arizona this weekend) and Pittsburgh would fall to 5-3. Interesting stuff seeing the Bengals up there.

 

Detroit Lions are on a two-game losing streak after winning 5 straight to start the season, have lost RB Jahvid Best and may be without QB Matthew Stafford Sunday at Denver.       

 

QB John Beck did more for Washington that Rex Grossman had in recent weeks so he’ll get to run with the job likely for at least a few weeks. Beck isn’t overly impressive in any one area but he uses his feet well and seems to make good decisions. He lost RB Tim Hightower and leading wide receiver Santana Moss this past week at Carolina, so things won’t be getting easier any time soon for the Redskins.

 

The Green Bay Packers are still the only undefeated team in the NFL after beating the Vikings last week. Minnesota covered for me in the first of my “0-4 Home Dog System” plays. Well done Mr. Ponder.

Carolina Panthers (2-5) equaled their season wins total of last season with a win over the Washington Redskins. Back-to-back weeks now we have the Panthers favored, last week -2.5 over the Redskins at home and now -3 -130 over the Minnesota Vikings.

 

Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and St. Louis Rams are still winless. Colts are a 9-point dog at Tennessee, Miami is a big dog catching 10 points at New York Giants and the Rams are +13.5 hosting New Orleans on Sunday

 

AJ Feeley Leads Big Dog St Louis

A Betting System

A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.

 

This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate.

 

In Week 8 Miami, Minnesota and Indianapolis are all road dogs. So the St Louis Rams qualify as a play this week as a +13.5 home dog against the fearsome Saints.

 

Our first “0-4 Dog System” play was a winner with Minnesota last week getting +8.5 at home to Green Bay. SEASON RECORD 1-0

 

Looking Ahead

Kansas City Chiefs meet San Diego again, having now won 3 straight and played four solid games in a row. Last time these two met at San Diego they fell just short losing 17-20 and this week get the Chargers in Kansas City catching +3 +110. Contrast the current line with the +14 points that the Chiefs were getting in Week Three at San Diego.

 

Baltimore finds itself in the role of big favorite again this week as they are a -12.5 favorite at home to Arizona. The Ravens looked dazed, amazed and confused Monday night falling to Jacksonville 7-12 as a 10-point favorite.

 

If someone could only tell me which Pittsburgh Steelers team we will see on Sunday when they host the New England Patriots. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 9:1 TD:INT ratio over the past few weeks and the Patriots can surrender points in bunches.

 

Games of the Week

1:15 Pacific: New England Patriots (-3 +110) at Pittsburgh Steelers (52)

5:30 Pacific: Dallas Cowboys (50.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-3 -120)

 

Games I Won’t Be Watching

10:00 Pacific: New Orleans Saints (-13.5) at St. Louis Rams (47)

10:00 Pacific: Arizona Cardinals (43.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)

 

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