A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.
Momma Told Us There’d Be Days Like This
An NFL betting week where the favorites cover 8 of 12 games (New York Giants ‘pushed’ the ‘3’ spread) is never good news for the sportsbooks, and it wasn’t good this past weekend. The winners were Green Bay (-14.5), Philadelphia (-3 +100), Atlanta (-3 -30), Cincinnati (-4.5), Baltimore (-7), Oakland (-6.5), Chicago (-2.5) and New York Jets (-7 -120). Starting with the fact that bettors tend to play favorites more than dogs, and ending with Teasers cashing both sides in most of the games on Sunday, it was one of “those” days for the books.
The Pittsburgh Steelers continue their Jekyll-and-Hyde routine. They were trounced by Baltimore (7-35) in week one, then shutout the Seahawks (24-0), barely escaped Indianapolis (23-20), lost at Houston (10-17), crushed Tennessee (38-17) and now laid an egg in slipping past Jacksonville 17-13 as a -12.5 favorite at home. This week they are a small -3.5 favorite at Arizona, a spot they typically would be a bigger favorite in, but it seems no one knows what to expect of them now.
Just a repeat from last week: The San Francisco 49ers are a good football team, they look a lot like the team everyone was expecting last season but never saw. Niners out-dueled the previously undefeated Detroit Lions on the road to move to 5-1 as they head into the bye.
Green Bay frustrated ‘Over’ bettors on Sunday, taking a 24-3 lead at the half hosting St. Louis Rams, and then sitting on it (Total was 47). It’s not often that 27-points get thrown up in the first half only to be followed by a shutout.
Are Rex Grossman’s days done as a starter for Washington? Likely. Head Coach Mike Shanahan will probably go to QB John Beck when Washington goes to Carolina this week but no doubt whoever starts will be on a short leash. With Grossman completing 9 passes to his team and 4 to the opposition Philadelphia Eagles last week, I would say he has forced Shanahan’s hand as the luster of a 2-0 start has worn off.
And then there was one, the Green Bay Packers are now the only undefeated team in the NFL after the Lions loss on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and St. Louis Rams remain winless. Colts are a 14-point dog at New Orleans, Miami is favored (?) by 1.5 at home to Denver while the Rams will be a double-digit dog at Dallas on Sunday
A Betting System
A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.
This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate.
Coming up in Week 7 Miami is favored at home, Indianapolis and St. Louis are big road dogs. So the Minnesota Vikings, in QB Christian Ponder’s first start, qualify as the first “0-4 Dog System” play getting +8.5 at home to Green Bay.
In case anyone is counting, my NFL and College football blog plays have gone 10-5-1 the past few weeks, you could certainly do worse getting free picks!
Bettors continued to pound the Philadelphia Eagles games ‘Over’ and bet the ‘Side’ as well. They were rewarded this week with a win as the Eagles used 4 Rex Grossman INTs to hold on for a 20-13 win, still, not overly inspiring stuff from the superstar Eagles who occupy the basement of the NFC East. Coming out of their bye week Philadelphia will host Dallas.
Following up with the Oakland Raiders, will losing QB Jason Campbell be a positive thing with the acquisition of Carson Palmer? The Raiders paid a lot for Palmer who is a very different QB from Campbell and there will be some adjustments to be made. Campbell was a conservative guy who could scramble and in Palmer they have a smart guy who can’t run but throws a better ball. We’ll see if Palmer does in fact have his arm strength back. Make no mistake though, the Raiders are a run first team with RB Darren McFadden leading the charge. At 4-2 Oakland is a -4 favorite hosting Kansas City this week.
Games of the Week
10:00 Pacific: Houston Texans (44.5) at Tennessee Titans (-3 -125)
10:00 Pacific: Atlanta Falcons (47) at Detroit Lions (-3 -125)
Games I Won’t Be Watching
10:00 Pacific: Seattle Seahawks (40.5) at Cleveland Browns (-3 +100)
10:00 Pacific: Denver Broncos (43) at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)