Rolling right along here with a very good football betting season. Now 6-2-1 in NFL plays the past 3 weeks to go along with a 3-0 roll in College Football for a combined 9-2-1 streak. Back to the pros we go Sunday as I have three more games that look to offer solid betting value in the NFL.
The bye weeks are in full effect now taking out Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, and Tennessee out of action this week. Kansas City (2-3) probably wishes they hadn’t hit the bye yet as they have put together 3 consecutive competitive games. They have won two straight (Minnesota and then at Indianapolis) and prior to that played very competitively at San Diego in losing 17-20 to a good Chargers team. There were rumors that Head Coach Todd Haley’s job was on the line but after the devastation of losing RB stud Jamal Charles it looks like the Chiefs’ play has bought Haley some time, if in fact he needs it. Seattle Seahawks offense sure came to life once WR Sidney Rice got on the field, and fellow former Viking QB Tavaris Jackson was wise to key on him until the defenses adjusted. Hawks still don’t have a threatening running game but their defense is solid and they have a great home field advantage. Coming out of the bye week Seattle (2-3) will get Cleveland and Cincinnati, two winnable games, although not easy by any stretch.
5:30 Pacific: Minnesota Vikings (41.5) at Chicago Bears (-3 +105) – Soldier Field
Without over-reacting too much to the Vikings first win of the season over a poor Arizona Cardinals team that gave things away early, let’s remember that Minnesota led at halftime in each of their first three games this season against some good teams (17-7 at San Diego, 17-0 vs Tampa Bay, and 20-0 vs Detroit). The Vikings success is highly dependent on RB Adrian Peterson and there is no secret there, they control the line of scrimmage, the ball and the clock with APete leading the charge. If any of that had been forgotten, it was reinforced last week and I expect a ground dominated game here. Minnesota defense has been a strength for years and it is this season as well. Bears defense is better than it showed two weeks ago at Carolina, looked better last week at Detroit and I expect continued improvement Sunday hosting Minnesota. As both teams are best served to take the ball to the ground, this one looks like a Matt Forte-Adrian Peterson battle with the defenses dominating.
I am betting Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears Under 41.5
5:35 Pacific: Miami Dolphins (42.5) at New York Jets (-7) – MetLife Stadium (Monday)
I think last week was a very big game for the New York Jets and they did play well and fought with the New England Patriots but I see a little bit of a “hang-over” spot for them. Yes they get the Monday night exposure on national television under the bright lights, but the attraction of that is generally something reserved for better teams. The Jets season blew up last week as they lost for the third straight game. Now they face the “lowly” Miami Dolphins with their 0-4 record and having lost their starting quarterback Chad Henne. This game screams ‘flat spot’ for the emotionally beaten Jets while on the other side it may be the highlight of the year for the Dolphins amid their low expectations. Miami is good enough to stay close and any NFL team is going to give their best effort. Jets run defense has not been very good this season and I fully expect the Dolphins to stay on the ground for the most part, especially in the absence of Henne. New York should see success through the air and Miami on the ground – these two typically play close games, the road teams have had a ton of success, and I see this one as being no different on Monday.
My bet is on the Miami Dolphins +7
Teaser Time: Minnesota Vikings +10 with Dallas-New England Over 48.5
As noted above I think the Minnesota Vikings are a better team than their 1-4 record suggests and a steady dose of RB Adrian Peterson will be just what they need to stay close here. An outright Vikings win over the Bears would not surprise me in the slightest. The Dallas-New England total is one that should definitely get Over the teased number of 48.5. New England can score in bunches and their defense is obviously susceptible. Dallas has the weapons to score points with the Patriots and has registered 24, 27 and 30 points in 3 of their 4 games this season. They come off their bye week healthier and have enough talent to trade with the high scoring Patriots. Through TDs and turnovers, QB Tony Romo helps our Over here.
Two-team 7-Point Teaser -130: Minnesota Vikings +10 with Dallas-New England Over 48.5