A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.
Big moves this past weekend had Tennessee going from -7 to -8.5 on Sunday as they hosted Jacksonville. Titans of course have dreams of the post-season on their mind while Jags were looking for tee times. Despite the line movement the dog still covered.
New England-Miami was another similar move, this time in the opposite direction as bettors jumped on the live dog Dolphins. Miami has been playing tough for the entire second-half of the season and they got the cover for bettors. Patriots were as high as -9 at home before closing -7.5.
Bettors were rewarded with the Cleveland Browns too as the Baltimore Ravens went from a -13 favorite down to closing -11. After being ahead 17-0 at the half, Cleveland hung tough to lose 14-20 and cash for those who joined the line move.
Steelers-Rams was another major line move on Sunday as the home side Pittsburgh closed -10 after being as high as -13. Steelers cruised to a 27-0 win as St. Louis never threatened.
The most wagered games in terms of both wager count and dollar volume were Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – we exclude the prime time night marquee games as they are always the most wagered on.
The least wagered games were Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals, and St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers.
Nice work by the Carolina Panthers who closed as a solid -7.5 favorite at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and roughed the Bucs up for a big 48-16 win. Panthers improved to 6-9 and through 15 games only FOUR teams in the entire league have scored more points: Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, and Detroit. Carolina made no offensive upgrades to speak of in the offseason that come to mind . . . aside from Cam Newton of course. Coaching deserves some credit too.
Carolina has averaged 25.9 points per game, last season they were dead last in the league at 12.3 ppg.
I mentioned here last week the Oakland Raiders being ahead 27-14 halfway through the 4th quarter before bowing to their knees and surrendering to Detroit’s Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson in Week 15. After notching the win last week in overtime at Kansas City the men black are tied for first with Denver at 8-7, but the Broncos hold the tie-breaker. That loss at Detroit might leave a big black mark on the Raiders season.
Tim Tebow, not so pretty.
Rumors came out of the Jets side of the New York-New York game had management wondering if Mark Sanchez was the future of the Jets. Sanchez was brutal again with a 54.2 quarterback rating thanks to 2 INTs and a fumble, and he was worse than that. Giants won 29-14 and now win the NFC East with a win or tie at home to Dallas on Sunday.
A Betting System
A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.
This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate. The Colts had qualified and lost earlier this season but we didn’t use them. We explained earlier that the Colts were only in consideration if we felt it was an ideal spot. Two weeks ago we liked them and they won, last week I wasn’t crazy about them and passed but they won regardless of me being picky.
Only St. Louis qualifies this weekend as they host San Francisco and it isn’t a bad spot for them with the Niners possibly easing up later as a -10.5 road favorite.
Our “0-4 Dog System”:
ATS SEASON RECORD: 3-0
Some duds this week starting with Tampa Bay (47) at Atlanta (-12) as the Falcons still have playoff positioning to play for while the Bucs have been lifeless since day one.
Dallas at Giants, winner is in and the loser goes home – simple enough. Home team New York currently a -3 +105 favorite, total is 46.5 at BetDSI Sportsbook. It was a mere 3 weeks ago that Dallas hosted the Giants and lost 34-37 in a fun one – this remathc will be the late game Sunday night.
Cincinnati is in quite a spot this week, and there are a few pieces to move around to figure their chances of getting into the post-season as they host Baltimore. Assuming Pittsburgh beats Cleveland, Baltimore needs to beat the Bengals to win the division and get a bye. But with a win Cincinnati is in, that much we know.
Games of the Week
1:15 Pacific: Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (37.5)
5:30 Pacific: Dallas Cowboys (46.5) at New York Giants (-3 +105)
Games I Won’t Be Watching
10:00 Pacific: San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) at St. Louis Rams
10:00 Pacific: Indianapolis Colts (37) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)