A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.
On To The Next One
I keep touching on this recurring theme here and it plays true to form again in Week 10, big favorites fall all the time. From New Orleans Saints losing to winless St. Louis Rams, 0-7 Miami Dolphins beating Kansas City Chiefs, to Baltimore falling previously at Jacksonville, and the Ravens again this past week in Seattle.
This is what I wrote in this spot two weeks ago:
“Tricky spot this week for the rolling Kansas City Chiefs as they come off the Monday Night win against rival San Diego and the 28-0 victory at Oakland the week before. Now they are a 4.5 point favorite as they host Miami and their 0-7 record. This game screams flat spot but we’ll see if HC Haley has the team focused.” Final Miami 31-3
And this past week:
“Trying to predict the next favorite to fall – could it be the Baltimore Ravens this week? Baltimore is a -6.5 favorite at Seattle where the Seahawks play much tougher than on the road. Ravens are fresh off the big win at Pittsburgh on Sunday night and the lowly Seattle game is sandwiched between the Steelers and division leading Cincinnati next week.” Final Seattle 22-17
In week 8 we called for a system play on St. Louis Rams +13.5 at home to New Orleans as well. Final St. Louis 31-21 . . . I’m just sayin’
Tebow wins again . . . maybe in the end that will be all that matters for the 4-5 Broncos who have won two straight now. He completed 2 passes the entire game, but one went for a touchdown to Eric Decker, and he ran for another score. He’s the new poster boy for winning ugly. Decker, by the way, has caught a touchdown pass in three consecutive games now.
The New York Jets fought their way into a 3-way tie for first with Buffalo and New England, and then the Patriots knocked them back out of it Sunday night.
Cincinnati Bengals hung tough at home versus Pittsburgh on Sunday before falling late to the Steelers 17-24. The Bengals loss was costly in that they also lost cornerback Leon Hall for the season while WR AJ Green missed the second half of Sunday’s game.
Is it any surprise that the tightest division in the NFL is the AFC West? Oakland leads at 5-4 with San Diego, Denver and Kansas City all 4-5.
Are the Philadelphia Eagles the best 3-6 team in a long, long while?
A Betting System
A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.
This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate. The Colts have qualified and lost twice in a row. I don’t really like the Colts for this system simply because they have lost personnel which have put a huge strain on their defense being on the field too long and they have the look of a team that just doesn’t want to compete anymore. The case for the other 0-4 teams is different in my opinion, but the Colts, while technically qualifying, are not a team I would bet on.
Minnesota +1 is the only qualifier this week at home to Oakland.
Our “0-4 Dog System”:
ATS SEASON RECORD: 2-2 (Colts 0-2)
Cincinnati lost the game, their top corner, and their top receiver missed the second half of the game against Pittsburgh last week. Now they head to Baltimore to face the Ravens who were beaten at Seattle last week. Baltimore continues to look flat against lower level opponents but will be a big -7 favorite according to BetDSI Sportsbook at home to the Bengals this weekend.
Miami is on a 2-game winning streak after starting 0-7 and find themselves a -2.5 favorite at home to the 5-4 Buffalo Bills who have now lost two straight. Bills defense is costing them while Miami is suddenly playing tough football. Total is currently 43.
Arizona QB John Skelton has a decent arm, is smart, and maintains his composure like a guy with more experience. He leads the 3-6 Cardinals into San Francisco to meet the 8-1 49ers on Sunday with San Francisco sitting as a hefty -9.5 favorite. It’s a tough spot for the Niners off the big win hosting NY Giants last weekend and then a big game travelling to Baltimore next week on Thursday night.
Trying to predict the next favorite to fall is not easy but I would at least consider the Cardinals as noted above and the Carolina Panthers this week at Detroit. Lions had the great start and everything was so positive but they have now dropped 3 of 4 (only win was over Denver) including 2 straight at home. Carolina (+7) is a scrappy competitive side and they catch Detroit off the Chicago game last week and hosting Green Bay at home on Thursday next week, just a few days away. Add to that QB Matthew Stafford playing beat up and absence of a strong running game, I might be inclined to fire something on the Panthers on Sunday.
Games of the Week
1:15 Pacific: San Diego Chargers (45) at Chicago Bears (3.5)
5:30 Pacific: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (No Line)
Games I Won’t Be Watching
10:00 Pacific: Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at Cleveland Browns (34.5)
1:05 Pacific: Seattle Seahawks (39) at St. Louis Rams (-2)