A summary of the week that was in the NFL as it pertains to betting, the book, and the landscape ahead.
Moving Right On
Green Bay Packers passed what was likely their final tough test in slipping past the New York Giants 38-35 on the road. Packers close the season hosting Oakland, Chicago and Detroit with one road game remaining, at Kansas City. Although nothing is a given, it does look like smooth sailing from here on out for the Packers.
If the Indianapolis Colts finish last in the league – do they draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck? The Colts have to be considering rebuilding based on the age of some of their core players combined with Peyton Manning’s problems this season and his age, it may be time for both to turn the page.
Tim Tebow wins . . . there, I’m done with that for this week.
Not sure why there has been discussions of the San Francisco 49ers resting players already since they clinched the division, because home field is huge in the NFL playoffs. Have we all forgotten about New Orleans playing at Seattle in last season’s playoffs?
The games with the highest wagering volume from the past week (excluding Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games as they are always the most wagered) were Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (mostly one-sided action on the Falcons) and the Green Bay Packers at New York Giants tussle.
As you might have guessed due to the quarterback problems, the games with the lowest wagering volume were Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dallas Cowboys still struggle on the road, dropping to 2-4 as visitors after Sunday’s collapse at Arizona.
Fortunately for the division-leading Cowboys the New York Giants fell for the fourth time in a row to fall one game back of Dallas at 6-6.
I am not sure where this Marshawn Lynch character came back from, but he is a “beast”. Seattle continues to play competitive football and are especially tough at home. Unfortunately those same Seahawks were the Thursday night game last week at home to Philadelphia and go on Monday Night Football this week hosting St. Louis. Just like the Jacksonville Jaguars, that is a little too much exposure for a below average team.
Last week the Philadelphia Eagles had more talent on the field than the Seattle Seahawks and were crushed 31-14. This week they will hold a similar edge at Miami, yet the Dolphins will likely put forth the better effort.
A Betting System
A betting system I have used in the past with success is this: Play ‘On’ any team that starts the season 0-4 when they are at home as a pointspread dog.
This season we have Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams as the teams that started 0-4 out of the gate. The Colts have qualified and lost three times. As I continue to write, I don’t really like the Colts for this system simply because they have lost personnel which has put a huge strain on their defense being on the field too long and they have the look of a team that just doesn’t want to compete anymore. The case for the other 0-4 teams is different in my opinion, but the Colts, while technically qualifying, are not a team I will bet on unless it is a perfect spot.
No teams qualify this week as they are either on the road or favored at home.
Our “0-4 Dog System”:
ATS SEASON RECORD: 2-0 (excluding the 0-3 Colts)
Carolina Panthers are 4-8 after winning their second straight game, last week at Tampa Bay, things get tougher as they go for a 3rd straight victory at home to Atlanta on Sunday.
After winning the second half of the game versus New England and covering the 20-point spread, the Indianapolis Colts are a +16 dog at Baltimore this weekend.
New Orleans, Green Bay and now at Dallas, it has been a tough stretch and hard fall from grace for the banged up New York Giants. G-Men are catching +3 +105 currently at BetDSI Sportsbook.
Games of the Week
10:00 Pacific: Houston Texans (37.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-3 -105)
10:00 Pacific: Atlanta Falcons (-3 +110) at Carolina Panthers (48)
Games I Won’t Be Watching
10:00 Pacific: Indianapolis Colts (40.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-16)
10:00 Pacific: New England Patriots (-8) at Washington Redskins (48)