Let’s take a look at the BetDSI Sportsbook UFC betting odds for each fight followed by my fight analysis and pick.
LYOTO MACHIDA PK+375
JON JONES PK-525
Jones in the huge betting favorite and for good reason. He is the champ who defended his title and he has finished two fighters that Machida couldn’t: Maurício Rua and Quinton Jackson respectively. Although Machida has shown improvement in his jumping front kick KO over MMA veteran Randy Couture and he has had around 6-7 months to train, it’s hard to see him doing any better than Maurício Rua. I take Jones to win via TKO before the halfway mark of the 3rd round.
ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA PK+205
FRANK MIR PK-255
Mir is coming in as the favorite in this revenge match. He totally dominated Big Nog in their last fight via strikes and takedowns. I don’t see this fight resulting differently especially since Nogueira has only fought once per year over the last 3 years while Mir fought 5 times over the last 3 years. Mir has been looking great in his recent fights and I believe Nogueira is underestimated his opponents ground game so I wouldn’t be surprised if Mir scores a submission win.
TITO ORTIZ PK+170
ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA PK-210
Tito just has not been performing well enough to be considered a betting candidate to most people. Although he went toe to toe with great fighters, he lost 4/5 of his last matches. Lil Nog has a recent win over Brendan Schaub and a 2009 win over Randy Couture, I expect his health and mindset to be in better conditions than Tito’s. If Tito can get into a position to ground and pound each round then I see him stealing this match from Lil Nog as that might be the one area he is better at. I see Tito being able to stand and bang with Nog as well. Even though Nog has pro boxing experience, his punches look sloppy sometimes and leave wide openings that Tito can take advantage of to get takedowns. It won’t be easy, but if we can get the old Tito back he can steal the win.