The over-under total for the Super Bowl stands at 47 points (a 24-23 or 27-20 or 30-17 game) as of Wednesday afternoon. You probably won’t see too much movement in that number until the weather forecasts become more solid and definite. Yet, how could this game go over the number? Here are three reasons:
1. Relatively Light Wind
A key dimension of this cold-weather Super Bowl is the wind. Peyton Manning can’t drive the ball through a strong wind, but current weather forecasts have the wind at no more than 10 miles per hour for Sunday night’s game. That’s not too bad. It should give Manning the ability to operate with a full playbook as long as there isn’t a driving, freezing rain or a heavy snowfall. Right now, chances for precipitation are around 10 to 20 percent. That’s good news for Denver, but if precipitation does fall, the pendulum would naturally swing to Seattle… and the under. The weather forecast calls for caution in terms of a betting play – you would expect money to come in late on the total, just because people are waiting for a relatively certain forecast – but if the wind remains light and there’s no precipitation, conditions would be suited to the over on the football betting lines on Super Sunday.
2. Light Snow, Not Light Rain, Would Be Of Minimal Impact
Another thing to realize about the weather is that the temperatures are going to be at or below freezing for portions of this game, especially the second half. If there is precipitation during this game, the over could still work if the form of precipitation is snow and not rain. A few snowflakes won’t really put a dent in Peyton Manning’s visibility, and if anything, slightly slippery conditions on the field could enable Denver’s receivers to make better cuts and breaks against uncertain Seattle cornerbacks. The Seahawks are used to playing in rain, but not as much in snow – that’s more Denver’s forte. If Denver’s offense thrives, this game has an excellent chance of going over the number on Sunday night.
3. There Could Be Less Pressure On Each Offense
A specific point to be made about the Super Bowl is that while it involves a lot of pressure, the two teams felt a lot more heat during the conference playoffs. Failing to make the Super Bowl is a big burden, but now that these two teams are here, the offenses and quarterbacks might let loose and display even more freedom than before. You could see Russell Wilson of Seattle bust out of a shell and play his best game of the postseason. Manning, after beating Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, could be a liberated player in this game. Manning has not yet played a really good Super Bowl – he struggled in his previous two outings, both in the warm-weather city of Miami. In suburban New York, Manning might be ready to have his NFL betting breakout Super Bowl on Sunday night.