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NFL Betting Picks: Super Bowl Champions Host High-Powered Offense On Thursday

The Seattle Seahawks have just won the first Super Bowl in franchise history. They return to the field to defend their title against the Green Bay Packers, who want to rise to the top of the NFC.

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Thursday, September 4th – 8:25 PM ET

Odds: Seattle -5

Why The Packers Will Cover

They can score in bunches and are in a very good position to do so. Green Bay doesn’t have Seattle’s defense, but it can win by dint of its offense and how lethal it can be. The Packers struggled last season, but they struggled for a very good reason: quarterback Aaron Rodgers was injured for much of the 16-game schedule. He played a little at the beginning and was able to return just before the end of the regular season as well. He was injured for most of the middle of the season, but when he came into the lineup for the final regular season game against Chicago, he was able to throw clutch touchdown passes in the fourth quarter when his team absolutely had to have them. Rodgers is a winner, but he’s not just a winner. He’s someone who produces huge statistical outputs when he’s right. He should be healthy in this game, and a healthy Rodgers really changes the outlook for the Packers and what they can realistically expect to achieve on offense. Seattle’s defense is strong, but Rodgers is good enough to make the kinds of plays that will outpace the Seahawks’ ability to cover the full field. Green Bay could very well be the toughest offense the Seahawks face all year, especially since Seattle has proven how fully it can shut down the Denver Broncos’ offense, using the Super Bowl as a reference point.

Why The Seahawks Will Cover

They are playing at home, where they almost always win and frequently win by big margins. The Seahawks don’t blow teams out all the time, but they have not been embarrassed on defense in multiple years. Seattle has gained such total trust in its abilities on its home field. The Seahawks fly to the ball and generate the level of energy that propels them forward. On the road, even this defense is sometimes tentative, though usually it’s the offense that holds the Seahawks back away from home. However, in their own nest, so to speak, the Seahawks regularly soar on defense. Their attitude-rich players, led by cornerback Richard Sherman, are so good at relying on their instincts and their natural feel for the game that when they play with the passion given to them by a rowdy home crowd, they reach their best level. Seattle flows to the ball and overwhelms its opponents with swift force. As long as the Seahawks’ offense doesn’t make mistakes and can convert a reasonable percentage of third downs with the passing game, the defense should be able to take care of the rest.

Outlook

If the Packers win, they will send a huge message to themselves and the rest of the NFL. However, are they ready to do that sort of thing? The feeling is that they’re not quite good enough to win in Seattle.

Pick: Seahawks -5

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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