Junior Dos Santos will clash with Shane Carwin in a title eliminator at UFC 131 this Saturday at Rogers Arena in Vancouver to see who’ll face heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez.
Junior is the clear favorite to win in the UFC odds at BetDSI.com and is listed -175 in the MMA money line, while Carwin is the underdog listed at +145. The fight is simple to analyze but difficult to make a strong pick as Dos Santos is a jiu-jitsu practitioner and Carwin is a wrestler that fell in love with the striking game
Dos Santos can’t be too confident for this Saturday, especially considering Carwin is a heavyweight with devastating punching power and great ability to dominate fights with his wrestling; he is the most dangerous heavyweight fighter in the first round, no question. Don’t be fooled by Carwin’s ability to knock down somebody with just a high five, he is one of the most intelligent fighters out there; he knows his strengths and weaknesses, that’s why he is so dangerous.
Obviously Dos Santos can knockout anybody with a single punch as well but he should use his range and keep it on his feet with his boxing style to win the fight, although if the fight goes to the ground and he can position himself well, his BJJ background may give him the ground game advantage.
Carwin’s strategy has to be similar to what he showed against Frank Mir in 2010; he drove Mir against the cage and didn’t give him any space; if Carwin gives Dos Santos space to find some punches the fight might be over sooner than later. However one thing that it will be different is Shane’s weight, 20 pounds lighter, but according to the people close to him he remains as the same strong-power hitter that can KO you with just one strike.
UFC betting fans should know this is not an easy fight for Dos Santos as Carwin knockout power is undeniable but at the end Dos Santos quickness should be de difference maker that will lean the balance to his side.