First off I want to start off by saying that I am a fan of both these fighters, so I am not playing any favorites. Both fighters know how to put on a show and I can guarantee that there will be fireworks as this is a grudge match. They just don’t like each other, so I see them venting out their anger in a stand and bang kind of way for most of the first round. As both fighters hold a slew of fight bonus awards, I am sure that this fight will produce another one and can potentially steal the show as the Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem fight will probably end quickly.
Ok, enough with the preview, let’s get to the MMA betting odds and picks:
Nate Diaz +200 vs Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone -250
The UFC Betting Odds favor “Cowboy” to win as he is on a 6 win streak which includes recent wins over Charles Oliveira and Dennis Siver, two fighters whom I respect. This kid just keeps getting better and better and you know he is VERY hungry to win as that will get him 1-2 fights way from a title shot. Cerrone’s 3 loses came from WEC title fights, now that he is in the UFC, he understands that every fight is a stepping stone to get him to what may be his last shot at a title in a big MMA organization. Like I said, this kid in HUNGRY!
Nate Diaz recently moved down to lightweight and proved he is a real threat in that division by defeating Takanori Gomi in his last outing. His improved boxing outmatches that of Cerrone’s and this is why he will have the stand up advantage. Although Donald has more submission wins over Diaz, I give Diaz the ground advantage as well, not just because he has a Brown Belt under Cesar Gracie, but because he is more comfortable and fluid on the ground.
I see this fight going back and forth with neither fighter giving too much ground. It will most likely go the distance and end via split decision.
UFC Betting Pick: I am going with Nate Diaz all the way as his style of fighting is tougher to figure out and defend against. Diaz also has a slight stand up and ground advantage.