UFC 146: A Closer Look At Frank Mir vs Junior Dos Santos

This Saturday Night in Las Vegas, UFC 146 goes down with a main event that features the first  Heavyweight Title defense for champion Junior Dos Santos as he takes on former champion Frank Mir.  The entire main card features Heavyweight fights that we will take a look at throughout the week.

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Dos Santos comes in an overwhelming favorite at -520, with the comeback on Mir coming in at +370.

The big criticism of Mir lately is does he have the heart to stay in a tough fight.  People feel he has given up against Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar.

MIr is also a guy who has snapped limbs in the octagon.  He broke Tim Sylvia‘s arm in a title fight, and in his last outting his kimura snapped legendary ‘Minotauro’ Noguiera‘s arm after giving him a chance to tap out.  So there is a killer instinct in there somewhere that cannot be discounted.

Of course, Dos Santos is a tough tough fighter who hits like a mule (10 KO’s in 14 career fights).   If Dos Santos sets the pace and hurts Mir early, will Mir be able to fight hurt?  That remains the question.

The way the matchup breaks down, I would think this match does not get beyond the second round, and I am inclined to think it will be a first round stoppage, either way.

Mir’s only real chance is to not get into a long grinding boxing match, because he will likely get KO’d.  I think if Dos Santos hurts him, Dos Santos will not let him off the hook.

So Mir is going to have to come in and get a quick submission.  Mir is one of the few heavyweights who is truly dangerous off his back, and I imagine if he were to be on top, he will have a few closing moves as well.

If Mir is to win, his blueprint to follow is the one he had for the first Lesnar fight.   But is Dos Santos too good to get caught?

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About Miguel

MMA matchmaker since 1997. No one besides Joe Silva has made more fights than me.
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