On the MMA Odds Breaker show below, Nick Kalikas, Miguel Iturrate and guests Matt Brown, Editor in Chief of HeavyMMA and former UFC fighter Frank Trigg discuss the Hector Lombard vs Tim Boetsch match-up:
Brown and Trigg disagree on the outcome. The pure gambling pick came from Brown based upon the value of the odds: BetDSI has latest odds of Hector Lombard -325 with Tim Boetsch the underdog at +265. So Brown went for the value bet with Boetsch whilst the experienced pro fighter Trigg came down firmly on the side of Lombard.
Approaching this battle Lombard has a great reputation earned outside of the octagon while Boetsch has battled successfully in it, this is why it’s so difficult to get a grip on this fight.
It’s Lombard’s UFC debut after a massively successful career with other organisations leaving him an impressive 31-2-1-1 and the reigning Bellator Middleweight champion. He stands firmly astride an astounding 25 fight unbeaten run.
Boetsch of course is no slouch himself, with a superb 15-4 record, a good proportion of those in the octagon. The reality is he has arguably been consistently fighting a higher level of opponent. Also, to his advantage and to be taken into account is the fact that Boetsch has moved down to Middleweight only recently. So he is likely going to have a physical size advantage.
Boetsch in on three fight-winning streak, which includes a TKO victory over Yushin Okami. That bout said much about the heart and endurance of Boetsch. He was getting dominated in the first two rounds before he turned it around in dramatic style.
But, is that enough to stop The Lightening? The odds say unlikely and whilst I feel that Boetsch has much more than a “fighters chance,” he has powerful hands and good reach advantage that will help him unload that power.
Lombard with his powerful stand-up and speed, plus world class judo, is not going to take this fight lightly. It looks to me like the UFC is giving Lombard a real test, but, one that is certainly winnable.
I am really struggling with this pick, it just seems to me that the odds are almost too good to ignore Boetsch, but I pick Lombard to beat Boetsch via TKO (punches) in Round 2.
Cheick Kongo Vs Shawn “The Savage” Jordan
BetDSI odds – Kongo -130 vs Jordan -130
Cheick has a 17-7-2 record but to me he always falls short at the highest hurdle. In this bout Jordan, 13-3-0 does not represent that hurdle. He is a younger man with a good record, but he has only one UFC bout against a weak opponent (Oli Thompson), which he won.
Kongo often flatters to deceive and his last bout against Mark Hunt was a perfect example of that. Kongo had a massive reach and height advantage but could not make it tell against the squat powerful Hunt.
I just do not think Jordan can tackle Kongo at this point in his career. I also think that Cheick will be desperate to win and win well, because, if he loses this bout I can see him getting his marching orders from the UFC. There are many younger, hungrier fighters lining up to replace him. I don’t see that happening though; Kongo wins this in round 3 via TKO ground and pound.
UFC 149: Urijah Faber Vs Renan Pegado
July 21st, 2012. Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, Canada
Prelims are available on FX from 5pmPT/8PMET
PPV is 7pmPT/10pmET from your usual suppliers.
By Alan Devonshir