Tomorrow night is the UFC’s final fight show of 2012, headlined by Cain Velasquez challenging Junior Dos Santos for the heavyweight title. This is being written as the weigh ins start, as their are several pick ‘em fights on the under card that I am eager to see the physical matchup on – Melvin Guillard versus Jamie Varner at 155 lbs and Eddie Wineland versus Brad Pickett. For the main event, the line sits with Dos Santos as the favorite at -185 with the return on Velasquez being +155. Earlier in the week Dos Santos was a slightly higher than 2 to 1 favorite at many of the books, so some late money has come in on Velasquez.
The Wineland-Pickett fight is one to watch, and is my odds on favorite for fight of the night. Combine the usual fast pace of the bantamweights with the fact that both guys are not afraid to scrap, and you should have a great fight. It is basically even money, as Wineland sits at -125 with Pickett at -105.
In this match, I want to see how they match up physically at the weigh ins, when they are face to face. Wineland has been in the 135 lb weight class since the start of his career, while Pickett has fought in higher weight classes and has gotten himself to 135 lbs to make a final run. Will Pickett be bigger, or is Wineland cutting a lot of weight and of the same stature? I look for Wineman to be faster to the punch, but he also is known to take damage, and they don’t call Pickett ‘One Punch’ for nothing.
The Varner-Guillard match has Varner am ever so slight underdog at +105 with Guillard sitting at -140.
Guillard usually comes to take off heads, but he has a low fight IQ, which means he is prone to bonehead moves and he doesn’t seem to know what to do in bad positions at times.
Varner for his part is a tough guy, and he has been in with some of the best and extended them into long matches. Known as ‘C-4′, he also has power, but he is not quite the natural athlete as Guillard and he may be in danger early in the fight. Will Guillard get to him early?
For the main event, the weigh ins will be ho hum. Both men respect each other and have been professional during fight week, and both are not max weight heavyweights that cut weight. I look for Dos Santos to be in the mid 240s in weight, nd Velasquez in the high 230s. Nothing much to see there….
But the weigh ins are streaming, and they will be widely available on the internet. If your considering lat minute UFC wagering, they are worth the watch.