UFC 159: A Look At The Odds A Month Out….

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Chael Sonnen (left) and Jon Jones (right) shared air time on TUF 17. Now they fight for Jones’ UFC Lightheavyweight title on April 27th.

The UFC 159 event is roughly a month away.  The event is scheduled for the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on April 27th and features a headline bout between Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen as they come off their gigs as coaches on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ reality series.  Right now, the line has Jones as a massive favorite at -1100 with the comeback on Sonnen at +700.  The big question is does the underdog have a shred of a chance?

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In the first episode of ‘TUF 17′, UFC President Dana White says about Jon Jones ‘if this kid can keep it together’ he could be an all time great.  He is referring to Sonnen’s best chance at winning this fight, and it hasn’t materialized.

We saw an inkling of what White is talking about already, a dark side.  His car accident and DWI, as well as a growing amount of pictures on the internet of Jones enjoying his celebrity status all show that Jones is drawn to the spoils of fame.  Now, for the reality show taping, Jones is living in Las Vegas, a sitting known for its trappings.   But Jones overall has looked his usual calm, collected self on the reality show and Sonnen has relied on his usual schtick rather than get personal and introspective.

So Jones is going to be on his ‘A’ game for this fight, he will not beat himself.  And Sonnen was probably going to need that against an opponent who is bigger and more athletic and has shown no real chinks in his MMA armor.  For the most part, Jones gets what Sonnen is doing with the trash talk, and he uses that to not let Sonnen get under his skin.

Sonnen at the end of the 1st Anderson Silva fight, which was his finest hour, was dead tired.  This mean he is going to have to finish Jones in the first two rounds or risk getting tired.  He will be more tired, as Silva did not truly resist his takedowns, no try that style against Jones who will be resistant and make it hurt.  Sonnen is going to have to land a KO punch, because it is unlikely he will even be able to set the pace in this fight, it will occur where Jones wants.

Upon firther review, the line is justified, and though I might bet such a big underdog, I am leaning toward staying away as Sonnen’s chances are just that slim.

About Miguel

MMA matchmaker since 1997. No one besides Joe Silva has made more fights than me.
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