This weekend’s UFC 169 event features a Heavyweight matchup between Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem that sees Overeem as a 3 to 1 favorite at (-320) with the comeback on Mir sitting at (+265). Between the two, neither man has even won a fight in the last two years, so a victory is much needed by both men. It will be interesting to see what the two men look like physically going into this matchup, as Mir fans and potential bettors may have good reason to see a chance for their guy.
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Let’s face it, Mir’s last two outings, against Josh Barnett and Daniel Cormier are hard to read. In Cormier, you have a stud athlete, but Mir stood at took punishment for 3 full rounds and didn’t quit. Mir had also started a new training regimen that fight, and he was looking very good physically for the Barnett fight. That fight ended super fast, and Mir did not like the stop.
The repercussions of that are that Mir should be quite fit physically for this fight. He has adjusted to his training, and the Barnett fight did not take a lot out of him.
Overeem on the other hand, has the troubling 2 fight winning streak where he has been able to win the opening minutes of the matches, but he appears to lack the explosiveness he had several years back. What is worse, is that he appears to tire and when an opponent fires back, Overeem has not been a guy who hangs around taking punishment.
Overeem may come out and win the first round, but if he cannot take Mir out and allows Frank to hang around in the fight, he may have an opponent who can take him out as well.
On the ground Mir is far more skilled, so he basically needs to avoid Overeem’s bread and butter guillotine that he uses a lot, and if it is on the ground, it will be all Frank Mir and it will be over fast.