Once it was stated that former 155 lb champion Frankie Edgar could potentially drop to 145 lbs and the featherweight division, there has been a great deal of speculation and anticipation regarding a showdown with Jose Aldo. Aldo has been a dominant force as a featherweight, and there has even been talk around his camp that he may eventually work his way up to the Lightweight division. Once the idea of the fight between the two was floated, many experts have been drooling about the possibility, and collision path appears set. But who would be favored in this bout when it does materialize? Will it be Edgar, who held and defended the title in what is likely the UFC’s most rugged division, or will it be Aldo, who has been as dominant a champion as we have seen since Anderson Silva?
Edgar has been a popular and effective champion since winning the title, but it looks like his career is at a crossroads. He deserves a rematch with Henderson, but there was very little that he did in their first meeting that was effective. The handful of takedowns he got led to a whole lot of nothing as he did no damage and attempted no submissions. Unless he adds to his game he is going to be at 145 lbs, because he is not going to regain the title he lost.
Heading to the lower division, Edgar would be coming off two losses in a row. Though he would be big and strong at 145 lbs, in Aldo he will still face an excellent striker who will have reach and length advantages.
How would Edgar do in a stand up war with Aldo? That is a tough call, because Edgar’s boxing game has been excellent. Aldo will likely also be faster than Frankie, and his kicking, kneeing and overall reach make him dangerous.
Will Edgar go to the ground? No one has really been able to hold Aldo down. Edgar is a good wrestler, and he got the takedowns against Henderson, but should he get Aldo there, he will be facing a more active, threatening guard than what Henderson presented.
So does Edgar walk into the 145 lb division with an immediate title shot, and possibly a third straight loss? Or does he ease in at 145 and take a few fights? The way the UFC does things, he will probably walk right into the Aldo fight.
I don’t know what the odds will be, but I favor Aldo to win the match, and I will likely stick with it even if he opens up a huge favorite. I don’t see it as a favorable matchup for Edgar at all.