Yea that’s right, I’m taking the underdog on this match. Miguel and Shuan are picking Shields to win due to his superior BJJ but I don’t think this fights outcome will result in a submission victory for either fighter. The BetDSI MMA oddmakers favorite Shields to win, check out the UFC Fight Night 25 odds:
JAKE ELLENBERGER PK+155
JAKE SHIELDS PK-185
This is a typical KO submission artist vs a KO artist matchup. Shields likes to grind out his opponents and score points for controlling the fight with his wrestling and BJJ. This is evident as 13 of his wins have come via decision, 10 from submissions and only 3 by KO. Ellenberger on the other hand prefers to end fights fast with his fist and this makes for some really exciting fights. 16 of his wins have come from KO, 11 of which were first round knockouts. His other wins come from 5 submissions and 4 decisions.
Ellenberger was the one who called out Shields and requested this matchup to happen. He obviously sees flaws in Shields stand up game that he is confident the he can exploit. He even went as far as to say “Shields not a big step up in competition, Carlos Rocha was more dangerous.”
Both fighters have reason to be confident in their strategy and skills coming into this fight. Shields will do what he always does: distract his opponent with punches so that he can shoot and get a win via submission or get enough points controlling the fight with his wrestling and BJJ to earn him a decision victory. Ellenberger’s simpler strategy will be to basically get a first round knockout.
Ellenberger has only been submitted once and Shields has only been knockout once so that’s why most people think this fight will go the distance. But Shields just lost his father/manager and lost his hot 15 win streak to GSP so I question his mental state of mine. Ellenberger is coming off his 4th straight win, his last victory came via his 11th first round knockout and he has already fought twice already this year. Not to mention he is younger and packs a lot more KO power then Shields.
UFC Fight Night 25 Betting Pick: Ellenberger to score is 12th first round KO!