UFC 155 rolls into Las Vegas on December 29th headline by the rematch between Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos for the UFC Heavyweight title. Right now the line sits with the Campion Dos Santos as a -180 favorite, with the comeback at +150 for Velasquez. More than one insider has told me that they expect action to come in on Velasquez as we approach fight time, so let’s take a look at the fight now that it is just days away….
This fight will hinge on Velasquez’ ability to adjust and gt in close to Dos Santos. The lesson to learn from the first fight is that standing and banging with Dos Sanos is a bad idea. Dos Santos is 15-1 in his career, and he has bludgeoned every one of his opponents with his fists. The two guys that took him the distance Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin are among the sturdiest of fighters, and we know Cain did not do well getting hit by Dos Santos the first time.
Velasquez is going to have to fight Dos Santos like he did ‘Bigfoot’ Silva. dos Santos and Velasquez are similar in size (heavyweights that are about 240 lbs), and Velasquez is going to have to use his wrestling to grind against the fence or to ground and pound.
Velasquez was able to be quicker than Silva in his last outing, and he dictated the pace of the fight and pounded Silva at will without letting him get off.
If the first fight is a measuring stick, he will have trouble beating Dos Santos to the punch, as the Champion looked faster.
If Velasquez is able to make a grind out of the fight, he will have to stay safe as Dos Santos seems to retain power in long fights. Though he will be in danger against a big puncher as long as the fight lasts, Velasquez is known for having great cardio, and if he is able to do damage against Dos Santos, a long fight may give him an edge. If Velasquez is winning a war of position and not really hurting Dos Santos, 25 minutes is a long time to fight a perfect fight like that against a dangerous champion.
I’m going to wait until fight time, after the weigh ins, just to see if this action on Velasquez comess in. I’m willing to bet they are wrong and I’ll take Dos Santos all day.