This weekend’s UFC 155 event scheduled for Saturday, December 29th in Las Vegas features a Light weight bout between contenders Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller that has ‘Fight of the Night’ potential. both guys have high winning percentages and are known for exciting fights, and both need a win as their status in the weight class slipped with losses in 2012.
Right now at the books, Miller is a -215 favorite with the payback on Lauzon at +175. Miller is 1-2 inn his last 3 fights but his losses are to current champion Benson Henderson and to top lightweight Nate Diaz.
Though Miller has always displayed solid Jiu Jitsu throughout his career, he was exposed as a bit slow and orthodox in his fight with Diaz, who submitted him with a guillotine after dominating the ground fighting in the bout.
If Miller is susceptible to quick, tricky submission artists like he showed against Diaz, then Lauzon will have a chance in this match. Lauzon has 18 submission wins in his 22 wins, an excellent percentage for a guy who has had a high quality of opposition even before he came to UFC.
Lauzon will be especially dangerous in the beginning of the fight, where he is sharp and is alway dangerous. In his last outng against Jamie Varner, he got the submission in the third round, showing extended range to his game.
Miller will need to make Lauzon work and burn energy, as Miller is likely stronger and has shown the better cardio. Lauzon does have four KO’s in his career, meaning he has finished every win, but Miller likely brings the better standup. If this turns into a boxing match, look for Miller to have the advantage, unless Lauzon can stay quick on his feet and with his hands.
This is a line worth keeping an eye on. Lauzon as an underdog will be live, and if action continues to come in on Miller, there may be a lot of value in making a late play on Lauzon.