The UFC’s 4th offering on FOX is coming up this weekend from Atlantic City, New Jersey with a main event in the lightweight division featuring popular Clay Guida against former championship challenger Gray Maynard. Right now, the odds stand at -325 for Maynard as the favorite, with Guida’s comeback being +265.
In his most recent outings, Maynard came very close on two separate occasions to capturing the UFC Lightweight title, and this is the first time we will see him in more than seven months.
As for Guida, he is looking to bounce back after a recent loss to current champ Benson Henderson snapped his 4 fight winning streak.
The common thinking is that Maynard is going to be too physical for Guida, whose style includes absorbing a good bit of punishment. Both share a lot of the same skills, with Maynard perceived as being a bit higher level in wrestling and overall ability to dish out punishment.
When I see odds this far apart, I start looking for ways for the underdog to win the fight, and with Guida, Im not sure he might not be a good bet. First of all, Guida has that intangible quality where he is never out of a fight.
The ‘Bully’ has been in five round fights before, but it is pretty clear that his best rounds usually come early. We will see if he will try to manage that early energy or if he goes for it and tries to take Guida out early.
Because Guida has shown an ability to survive, and may be able to use the same formula as Frankie Edgar to get out of this one with a victory. If he can get thru round 1, and Maynard’s foot comes off the gas pedal in rounds 3-5, then we may be looking at a match that Guida can steal.
In the build up to the fight, I like Guida’s confidence and mindset. He is on record stating ‘this will be fun for 5 rounds’, which gives you the indication that Guida is going to be ready with a game plan for the full twenty five minutes.
Maynard is a horse, and he is rightfully the favorite in the fight. But this might be another one of those chances, because Maynard is facing a very live underdog.