The UFC on FOX SPORTS 10 event headlined by the Lightweight tilt between Benson Henderson and Josh Thomson airs tomorrow. The odds on the main card are worth looking at. The Heavyweight co main event of Gabriel Gonzaga and Stipe Miocic sees Miocic coming in favored at (-230) with the payback on Gonzaga at around (+190). Similarly, ‘Cowboy’ Donald Cerrone is favored (-200) over Adriano Martins (+170), and the featherweight fight between Darren Elkins and Jeremy Stephens is a near pick ‘em. Let’s take a look at the matchups.
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Miocic was able to break through and score an attention getting win in his last outing over Roy Nelson. He is an athletic, hard punching fighter with a wrestler base. He should an improved gas tank in going the distance. But it has been 7 months since the fight, and with just 11 fights, the UFC may be doing Miocic a disservice by him fighting every six months. Gonzaga’s advantage is his experience, as he has more UFC fights than Miocic has in his whole career. Gonzaga however, has been up and down in his career, and you never know what your going to get. Two big, active heavyweights who can finish fight slugging it out.
Donald Cerrone is also a 2 to 1 or so favorite over Adriano Martins, but Cerrone is a guy whose career trajectory has leveled off. Nevertheless, a focused and ready Cerrone has the resume and deserves the respect at the books, but he has had out of the octagon problems and may not be as focused as he needs to be. For Martins at least, that wont be a problem as this is a step up for him in his career and a win would be a big advance for his resume.
The Elkins versus Stephens bouts is about even money. Elkins is a tough, gritty competitor who has performed well in his UFC career aside from a KO loss to stud Chad Mendes. He at times lacks head movement and gets hit a lot, and that isn’t a good formula for him against a fighter like Stephens, who is coming down in weight and will hit you if you let him.