The third UFC on FOX Sports card will be coming to us from Belo Horizonte, Brazil on September 4th featuring a Light Heavyweight main event pitting Glover Teixeira against Ryan Bader. Right now, the sportbooks have Teixera a more than 3 to 1 favorite at (-325) with the comeback on Bader sitting at (+265). Bader is 3-3 in his last six fights, and he has trouble breaking through with a signature win against a big name.
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Bader is a solid fighter, and losses to Lyoto Machida and Jon Jones are nothing to be ashamed of. He got caught fast by the veteran Tito Ortiz in a fight he should have won, but he has taken care of business in the ocatgon. In his last outing, it took him less than a minute to finish Vlad Matyushenko, and he owns a quality win over Antonio Rogerio Noguiera.
Teixeira has made believers out of a lot of people in his 4-0 run with the UFC, and he appears to have the focus and seriousness to earn a spot in the top 2 or 3 in the division.
Bader is going to need the takedown, as he does not want to stand in front of Teixeira and trade. We have yet to see Teixeira from his back, but Bader has to take him there and find out if Teixeira can be offensive off his back. A stand up fight for Bader represents danger, and having Teixeira on top of him on the ground represents a worse case scenario, so Bader has to gt the takedown.
Teixeira went the distance with Quinton Jackson, and he went deep into the fight with Maldonado, and he has other full length matches in his career against tough guys. If the fight goes deep, both men will be tired, but Teixeira may be the better bet when fighting fatigued.
Add to these factors the Brazilian homecourt advantage, and you are looking at Ryan Bader being 3-4 in his last seven.