UFC on Fuel TV: Diego Sanchez vs Jake Ellenberger Predictions

UFC Fuel TV Diego Sanchez vs  Jake Ellenberger betting picksDiego Sanchez vs Jake Ellenberger is going to be one hell of a welterweight fight. It takes place Wednesday, February 15th from the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Nebraska. Be sure to tune in at 8pm ET for what will be a bloody match that will end in KO or submission.

Both fighters have been able to finish most of their fights so I don’t see this match up ending any differently.  If Diego wins it will most likely be by rear-naked choke or guillotine choke as he has finished fights with mostly submissions (9). If Jake wins it will probably be by KO or TKO as he already finished fights by these methods a whopping 17 times.

Let’s see who the MMA betting favorite is to win this match by looking at the BetDSI Sportsbook UFC betting odds (they my change getting closer to fight date):

DIEGO SANCHEZ +240
JAKE ELLENBERGER -300

Ellenberger is the betting favorite, and it’s not because he will be fighting from his home state where he is undefeated in pro MMA. Jake is the bigger, stronger opponent who has the heavier hands. Jake “The Juggernaut” is on a 5 win streak and is coming off a Knockout of the Night win over Jake Shields. Jake has avoided 66% of strikes, has a 74% takedown success rate and 90% takedown defense. On paper he out-performs Diego, (including in successful strikes delivered).

To Diego’s credit, he has faster hands and has a better ground game. Although the odds have been and will continue to favor Ellenberger more, I feel that the odds should be closer as Sanchez can very well create an upset. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Diego “The Dream” pull off a guillotine choke when Jake tries to take him down, or scramble to take Jake’s back to score a rear-naked choke. I have a feeling that Diego and his team over at Jackson’s Submission Fighting have some secret submissions in store for Ellenberger.

UFC on Fuel TV Betting Pick: Stats don’t lie; I have to give this match to Ellenberger. Although I initially gave this fight to Diego to win, after doing extensive analysis, I see that Jake has the clear advantage.

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